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Uncertain Growth. Global Economic Projections Meta-analysis for 2024

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Essential

  • Mixed Growth Predictions: A nuanced landscape is depicted for global GDP growth in 2024, with mixed anticipations from different organizations.

    • Optimistic

      • UNCTAD

      • Euromonitor

      • S&P Global

      • World Bank

    • Neutral

      • IMF

    • Pessimistic

      • OECD

      • Morgan Stanley

      • Goldman Sachs

      • WTO

      • PwC

  • Moderation of Inflation: Inflation rates are expected to continue their downward trend into 2024. S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts project a global consumer price inflation of 4.7% for 2024, which is a decrease from the estimated 5.6% in 2023 and significantly lower than the peak of 7.6% in 2022. This trend is anticipated across most regions, indicating a global phenomenon.

  • Subdued Growth in North America and Western Europe: These regions are forecasted to experience growth rates below their potential, partly due to efforts to bring inflation back to target rates. Consequently, weaker annual real GDP growth rates are expected in 2024 compared to 2023. The global annual real GDP growth rate is predicted to slow to 2.3% in 2024, down from an estimated 2.7% in 2023.

  • Slow Recovery for Mainland China: China's economy is anticipated to recover gradually, supported by more accommodative policies, an improvement in private-sector confidence, and an expected stabilization in economic activities.

  • Global Economic Weakness: The World Bank predicts the global economy to face its weakest half-decade performance in 30 years. This indicates a prolonged period of subdued economic growth on a global scale.

  • Meta-Analysis Conclusion: Overall, the meta-analysis suggests a trend towards either a slight worsening or a similarity in economic conditions compared to 2023.

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© 2023 McKinley Rice, Inc. All Rights Reserved.